📰 Weekly Markets Brief | August 17 – 24, 2025
Canada — Key Indexes, Debt & Mortgages
| Index | Weekly Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ ~1% | First close above 28,000 |
| S&P/TSX 60 | ▲ ~1% | Large caps participated in the rise |
Key News – Debt & Mortgages
- GoC yields: Stable-to-lower (10-yr ~3.44%) — slightly easing financing costs and nudging fixed-rate mortgage quotes down.
- Stronger CAD (~0.7%): Dovish Fed tone + Canada tariff relief → better sentiment and credit stability.
- Core inflation cooled: Raises odds of a September BoC cut to ~39%–70%.
- Housing cooling gradually: Lower core inflation + improved trade terms support affordability as the 2025–26 mortgage-renewal wave approaches.
United States — Weekly Summary
| Index / Yield | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ +0.27% | Small gain → investors optimistic but cautious. |
| Nasdaq | ▼ –0.58% | Tech/AI dipped → rotation out of big winners. |
| Dow Jones | ▲ +1.53% | “Value” stocks up → money moved into industry/financials. |
| 10-Yr Treasury | ▼ 4.25% | Yield fell → market betting on lower rates ahead. |
Notable Stocks — Three Quick Hits
| Ticker | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | ▲ +6.2% | Hopes for easier policy; rotation back into tech/growth. |
| NVDA | ▲ +1.7% | Ongoing strong demand for AI chips and cloud spending. |
| INTC | ▲ +5.5% | Flows into value/industry and a U.S. chips recovery story. |
Why It Matters
- Canada: Slightly lower GoC yields, a firmer CAD, and cooler core inflation support affordability and raise BoC-cut odds—helpful as the big 2025–26 mortgage renewals approach.
- United States: A dovish-leaning Fed and expanding PMIs support a soft-landing view, but higher PPI and tariff chatter keep inflation risks alive—leaving markets highly data-dependent on the path of rates.
