📰 Weekly Markets Brief | July 20 – 27, 2025
Canada – Market Overview
| Index | Weekly Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ +0.70% | New closing high during the week. |
| S&P/TSX 60 | ▲ +0.58% | Up from 1,625.71 on Jul 18. |
Market Highlights – Canada
- Bank of Canada (Jul 30): Expected to hold the policy rate at 2.75%, keeping variable‑rate mortgages roughly unchanged for now.
- Mortgage renewal wave (2025–2026): ~60% of mortgages reset; many borrowers to face higher payments (≈+10% in 2025 renewals and ≈+6% in 2026 vs. Dec 2024). Plan your budget ahead.
- Rates & housing: 3–5yr fixed ~3.8%–4.0% via brokers, often >4% at big banks; rising housing supply is helping keep prices relatively stable.
- Debt issuance & yields: Supply is up; 10‑yr GoC ~3.5%. Early August brings bond reopenings and large government redemptions.
United States – Positive Week, Weak Factory Data & Mixed Quarterly Earnings
| Index / Yield | Weekly Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ +1.46% | Trade deal lifts sentiment |
| Nasdaq | ▲ +1.02% | Tech leads |
| Dow Jones | ▼ –1.26% | Industrials drag |
| 10‑Yr UST | ▼ 4.38% | Yield eased during the week |
U.S. Market Highlights
- U.S.–Japan trade deal: Lower tariffs improved market mood.
- Durable goods (Jun): –9.3% m/m after –10.4% in May — clear factory slowdown.
- Services PMI (Jul): 55.2 — fourth month >50, best since May 2023; services activity expanding.
- Bonds: 10‑year yield slipped to 4.38% as investors sought safety on soft manufacturing data.
Stocks in Focus – Company Quarterly Reports
| Ticker | Weekly Move | Headline |
|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ +4.4% | Strong quarter: cloud revenue accelerated; AI demand boosted growth. |
| TSLA | ▼ –4.1% | Weak quarter: deliveries and auto revenue fell; management flagged “tough quarters” ahead. |
| IBM | ▼ –9.1% | Beat estimates, but shares fell after a big YTD run and high expectations. |
Why It Matters
- Canada: 10‑year yields are ~3.5% and more long bonds are coming, so borrowing stays expensive as ~60% of mortgages renew in 2025–26; if the BoC holds at 2.75%, variable rates stay steady for now.
- United States: The U.S.–Japan trade deal lifts sentiment, but sharp declines in durable‑goods orders and mixed quarterly earnings leave markets dependent on incoming macro data and the Fed’s guidance.
