Canada — Rates, Mortgages & Markets
| Index | Close (Aug 1, 2025) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 27,020.43 | ▼ –1.7% |
| S&P/TSX 60 | ~1,610–1,620 | ▼ –1% |
Key Highlights
- 10-Yr GoC Yield: Fell from 3.48%→3.39% early in the week; stabilized around ~3.38%.
- BoC Decision (Jul 30): Policy rate held at 2.75%.
- Mortgage Renewals (2025–26): ~60% of mortgages set to renew; monthly payments expected to rise ~10% (2025) and ~6% (2026) vs. Dec-2024; variable-rate borrowers may see ~5%–7% lower payments.
- Uncertainty & Trade: U.S. tariff risks and softer U.S. data kept market volatility elevated.
U.S. – Weak Week for Stocks, Surprise Growth, and Company Earnings
| Index / Yield | Weekly Change | Quick Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ –2.36% | Declines on macro & geopolitics |
| Nasdaq | ▼ –2.17% | Tech softened |
| Dow Jones | ▼ –2.92% | Industrials weighed on the index |
| 10-Yr UST | 🔻 4.21% | Yield fell over the week |
U.S. Highlights
- Soft jobs: Only 73K payrolls added in July (below forecasts) — a sign of a cooling labor market.
- Economic growth: Q2 GDP revised up to +3.0% — shows resilience in the economy.
- Fed: Policy rate held at 4.50%; waiting for more data before making changes.
Stocks in Focus – Quarterly Earnings
| Ticker | Weekly Change | Headline |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | ▼ –7.2% | Strong results, but weak guidance for next quarter; heavy AI spending worries investors. |
| META | ▲ +5.2% | Robust ad revenue supported by AI tools; continues major infrastructure spending. |
| MSFT | ▲ +2.0% | Azure growth remains strong, Copilot adoption rising; big data-center investments continue. |
Why It Matters
- Canada: With 10-year yields around ~3.4% and a 2025–26 mortgage-renewal wave (~60% of the market), borrowing costs may stay elevated even if the BoC holds rates. It’s wise to budget ahead, compare fixed vs. variable, and watch U.S. tariff risks that could widen credit spreads.
- United States: A softer jobs print but 3% GDP keeps the Fed data-dependent; equities remain sensitive to AI-driven earnings and any shift in rate-cut timing as yields move.
