Canada – Markets, Housing & Mortgages
| Index | Weekly Move |
|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ +0.42 % |
| S&P/TSX 60 | ▲ +0.37 % |
Weekly Highlights – Canada
- BoC Minutes (19 Jun): Most Council members back a gradual, data-dependent easing path; odds of a cut before September remain low.
- CPI Outlook (18 Jun): May headline CPI consensus trimmed to 2.3 % YoY as food and fuel prices soften.
- Steady GoC Yields: 10-yr Canada bond hovers near 3.32 % (-2 bp w/w), easing pressure on 5-yr fixed mortgage rates (~4.55 %).
- Housing Starts (17 Jun): May starts jumped 8 % to a 264 k annual pace, led by B.C. and Québec.
United States – Fed, Macro Data & Equity Movers
| Index / Yield | Weekly Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ –0.15 % | Fed on hold; Mideast tensions weigh |
| Nasdaq | ▲ +0.21 % | Chip stocks lead gains |
| Dow Jones | ▲ +0.02 % | Flat, cautious tone |
| 10-Yr UST | ▼ 4.37 % (-0.67 bp) | Safe-haven bid pulls yields lower |
Market Highlights – U.S.
- Fed Decision (19 Jun): Rate held at 4.50 %; dot plot now shows just one cut pencilled in for 2025.
- Retail Sales (18 Jun): May sales fell 0.9 % MoM—sharpest drop YTD and clear sign of cooling demand.
- Consumer Strain: High rates and real-wage erosion curb spending appetite.
- Geopolitics: Israel–Iran escalation boosts volatility and drives flows into Treasuries.
Stocks in Focus
| Ticker | Weekly Move | Key Headline |
|---|---|---|
| MU | ▲ +6.4 % | Unveiled HBM3E/HBM4; deepened AI-memory tie-up with AMD. |
| AMD | ▲ +8.2 % | Piper Sandler sees GPU rebound; launched MI400 chips & Helios server. |
| COIN | ▲ +28 % | U.S. Senate passes GENIUS stable-coin bill, boosting crypto trading outlook. |
WHY IT MATTERS
- Canada: The BoC’s “wait-and-see” stance and steady yields give the mortgage market breathing room, letting households better prepare for the large 2025–26 renewal wave and manage current debt levels more prudently.
- United States: The Fed signals rates will stay higher for longer, while weak consumer data and Mideast conflict add uncertainty; portfolio managers toggle between AI-exposed tech and the safety of Treasuries.
