📰 Weekly Markets Brief | June 22 – 29, 2025
Canada – Markets & Debt Developments
| Index | 27 Jun Close | Weekly Move |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 26,692.32 | ▲ +0.73 % |
| S&P/TSX 60 | 1,589.86 | ▲ +0.84 % |
Market & Debt Highlights
- BoC Neutral-Rate Study (25 Jun): Long-run “neutral rate” held at 2.25 – 3.25 %, giving markets a steady anchor.
- 10-Yr GoC Yield (25 Jun): Eased to 3.32 % (-2 bp) on strong demand, trimming federal funding costs.
- Fiscal Snapshot (24 Jun): Net-debt-to-GDP still the lowest in the G7; AAA rating retained.
United States – Fed on Hold, Soft Data & AI-Led Rally
| Index / Yield | Weekly Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ +3.44 % | Cease-fire relief fuels risk-on |
| Nasdaq | ▲ +4.25 % | AI megacaps drive record close |
| Dow Jones | ▲ +3.82 % | Broad industrial rebound |
| 10-Yr UST | ▼ 4.27 % (-2.33 bp) | Yields fall on weak GDP print |
Market Highlights – U.S.
- Israel–Iran Cease-Fire: Slashed the risk premium and sparked cross-sector gains.
- Q1 GDP (-0.5 % SAAR): Weakest since COVID, lifting odds of a summer Fed cut.
- AI Leaders Outperform: META +7.5 %, NVDA +9.6 %, AMD +12.1 % extend tech momentum despite export headwinds.
Why It Matters
- Canada: A stable neutral-rate band, AAA credit, and healthy demand for GoC bonds keep borrowing costs low and liquidity ample—critical as a large wave of mortgage renewals approaches.
- United States: The cease-fire rally hides a GDP contraction; softer growth boosts the probability of Fed rate cuts even as AI giants lift equity indices, leaving markets delicately balanced.
